AI market guide
AI model ranking markets, explained.
Compare benchmark narratives, model releases, and prediction-market expectations around leading AI labs.
Independent educational site. Not financial, betting, legal, or trading advice. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
Market-implied probability
Loading…Trending public market snapshotUpdated when the page loadsLIVE public market data
Trending probability watchlist
These snapshots are loaded from public Polymarket market data when the page opens. They are informational only.
LIVE data loads from a public API. Prices can change quickly and may be delayed or unavailable.
How to use this tracker
Use market-implied probabilities as a research signal, then check the market rules, resolution criteria, liquidity, and outside evidence. ProbabilityWatch does not recommend trades or guarantee outcomes.
- Read the exact event question and resolution source.
- Check whether liquidity is deep enough for the displayed price to be meaningful.
- Compare market movement with news, calendars, and primary sources.
Explore ProbabilityWatch
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Open guide →