Price means probability, not certainty
A YES share near 42¢ roughly implies a 42% market probability before fees and spread. Compare it with your own estimate.
Open calculator →Starter checklist
Before you open a prediction-market account, check these five things.
ProbabilityWatch is an independent education site. Use this page to understand the basics first: implied probability, market rules, fees, liquidity and jurisdiction availability.
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Five checks before leaving this site
Read resolution rules
Every market has criteria that determine the final outcome. Ambiguous wording can matter more than the headline.
Resolution guide →Check spread and liquidity
Thin markets can look attractive but be hard to enter or exit at the displayed price.
Liquidity guide →Understand fees and availability
Fees, access and rules vary by location and platform. Check official terms before taking action.
Fees guide →Start with observation
You can learn a lot by watching price movement before risking capital.
Browse live probabilities →Ready to compare live markets?
Continue only if you understand the risk and local availability.
Continue with checklist context