Interactive tool
Implied Probability Calculator
Convert market prices into readable probabilities, estimate gross payout, and sanity-check the break-even probability before opening an external prediction-market page.
Inputs
Results
A positive gap only means your input estimate is higher than the market-implied price. It is not an edge unless your estimate is well-supported and costs are considered.
How to interpret the output
A YES price of 42 cents maps to roughly 42% implied probability in a simple one-dollar payout contract. If you spend $100 at 42 cents, the rough gross payout if YES resolves is $100 / 0.42 = $238.10 before costs.
Break-even probability
The break-even probability is approximately the price you pay, before fees and spread. Paying 42 cents means the outcome needs to happen more than about 42% of the time across similar opportunities to be attractive before costs.
Use this checklist before clicking through
- Read the market title and the full resolution rules.
- Check whether the price shown is bid, ask, midpoint or last trade.
- Look at volume, liquidity and bid-ask spread.
- Confirm the event deadline and source of truth.
- Confirm availability and legal restrictions in your jurisdiction.