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Prediction market articles and guides
Browse ProbabilityWatch guides on implied probability, event-contract rules, spreads, order books, polling comparisons, elections, Fed rates, crypto and AI markets.
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Prediction Market Spread Explained
Learn how bid-ask spreads affect displayed probabilities, execution quality and the usefulness of a prediction-market price....
GuidePrediction Market Order Book Explained
A beginner-friendly explanation of order books, bids, asks and depth for event-contract markets....
GuideWhat Happens When a Prediction Market Resolves?
Understand the resolution process: criteria, sources of truth, settlement timing and common edge cases....
GuideCan Prediction Markets Be Wrong?
Yes. This guide explains why market prices can miss, overreact or reflect constraints rather than pure probability....
GuideHow to Read Event Contract Rules
The title is only the headline. Learn how resolution rules, dates and sources determine what a market actually means....
GuidePolymarket vs Polls
A neutral guide to comparing Polymarket-style event prices with public polls and survey averages....
GuidePolymarket Alternatives for Research
Compare event-market platforms and adjacent probability sources without assuming one venue is always best....
GuideAre Prediction Markets Legal?
A high-level educational overview of why availability differs by jurisdiction and why users must check local rules....
GuideImplied Probability Formula for Event Contracts
Convert YES and NO prices into readable percentages, compare break-even probabilities, and understand what a contract price really means....
GuidePrediction Market Risk Checklist
A concise checklist for reading prediction-market probabilities responsibly before clicking through to an external platform....
GuidePrediction Market Resolution Rules Explained
A practical guide to reading event-market resolution rules before interpreting a probability....
Guide2028 Election Prediction Markets Guide
A neutral guide to reading 2028 US election prediction-market probabilities and candidate markets....
GuideAI Prediction Markets Explained
How AI event markets track model launches, benchmarks, company milestones and policy outcomes....
GuideAI Prediction Markets Watchlist
Track AI-related event contracts with a research lens: model releases, benchmarks, company milestones and policy events....
GuideAre prediction markets accurate?
Prediction markets can aggregate information, but they can also be wrong, illiquid, biased, or distorted by news shocks....
GuideBitcoin Event Probability Guide
How to read Bitcoin-related prediction markets alongside price, volatility and macro context....
GuideHow to Compare Prediction Market Prices Across Platforms
A step-by-step framework for comparing event prices when platforms use different rules, fees and liquidity....
GuideCrypto Prediction Markets Explained
A safer educational introduction to crypto-related event contracts, volatility and market-quality checks....
GuideElection Forecasts vs Prediction Markets
Election forecasts, polls and market odds answer related but different questions. This guide explains how to combine them carefully....
GuideEvent Contracts Explained
A beginner-friendly explanation of event contracts, YES/NO outcomes and implied probabilities....
GuideFederal Reserve Probability Watchlist
A practical checklist for following FOMC and rate-cut probability markets without overreading a single price....
GuideFOMC Rate Cut Probability Guide
How to read FOMC rate-cut prediction markets, convert YES prices and avoid common interpretation mistakes....
GuideHow Accurate Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets can be useful probability signals, but they are not magic forecasts. This guide explains calibration, liquidity, incentives and com...
GuideHow Prediction Market Liquidity Works
Learn why volume, spreads and market depth matter when interpreting prediction-market probabilities....
GuideHow to Compare Prediction Market Odds
Learn how to compare YES prices, volume, spreads and related markets without overreading one probability....
GuideHow to read Polymarket prices
Learn how to read YES and NO prices, outcome prices, spreads, liquidity, and market rules before clicking through to live markets....
GuideKalshi vs Polymarket vs PredictIt: Research Comparison
A neutral comparison framework for people researching regulated event contracts and prediction-market style platforms....
GuidePolymarket availability by region
A cautious guide to regional availability, terms, and why users must check local laws before using any prediction market....
GuidePolymarket Fees Explained for Beginners
A plain-English guide to the cost concepts beginners should understand before interpreting prediction-market returns....
GuidePolymarket Probability Calculator Guide
How to convert Polymarket YES prices into implied probability and rough payout estimates....
GuidePolymarket vs Kalshi
A neutral comparison framework for prediction-market platforms, market availability, regulation, fees, and user experience....
GuidePrediction Market Arbitrage Explained
A conservative educational explanation of price differences across markets and why apparent arbitrage is often harder than it looks....
GuidePrediction Market Liquidity Explained
Liquidity affects how reliable and usable a prediction-market price is. Learn about spreads, depth and thin-market risk....
GuidePrediction Market Glossary
A concise glossary of prediction-market terms including YES price, implied probability, liquidity, spread and resolution....
GuidePrediction Market vs Poll: How to Read the Difference
Polls measure sampled opinion; prediction markets aggregate prices from people expressing expectations. Learn when each signal is useful and where it ...
GuidePrediction Markets for Elections
How election-related markets are structured and what to inspect before reading candidate or party probabilities....
GuidePrediction Markets for Inflation
A research guide for following CPI, inflation expectations and macro-data event contracts....
GuidePrediction Markets for Interest Rates
How to interpret event contracts tied to central-bank meetings, rate cuts, holds and hikes....
GuidePrediction markets vs sports betting
Understand the practical differences between event markets, sportsbook odds, probability thinking, and jurisdictional restrictions....
GuideWhat is a prediction market?
A plain-English explanation of prediction markets, event contracts, uncertainty, and why prices can be read as crowd expectations....
GuideWhat Is a YES Share?
A YES share is a position that pays if the event resolves YES. This guide explains the concept without hype....
GuideYES price and implied probability
Convert YES prices to implied probabilities and understand why price does not equal certainty....