Elections hub
Election Forecasts vs Prediction Markets
Election forecasts, polls and market odds answer related but different questions. This guide explains how to combine them carefully.
Educational note: This guide explains probability and market structure. It is not a recommendation to trade, and availability depends on local rules.
Three different signals
Polls measure stated voter preference, forecasts model the election system, and markets price an event contract. Each can be useful, and each can be wrong.
Where markets help
Markets react quickly to new information and can summarize many inputs, but the price can be distorted by liquidity, access, narrative and contract wording.
Responsible reading
Use election market probabilities as a dashboard signal, not as certainty or advice. Check date, jurisdiction and resolution wording.
Next step: compare a market price with your own estimate, then read the rules before opening any external market.
Use the calculatorOpen Polymarket