ProbabilityWatch

Live market snapshots

Live event markets in one watchlist.

Track trending public prediction markets and use them as starting points for research — not as advice or recommendations.

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Independent educational site. Not financial, betting, legal, or trading advice. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Market-implied probability

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LIVE public market data

Trending probability watchlist

These snapshots are loaded from public Polymarket market data when the page opens. They are informational only.

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Elections

Long-cycle political probability trackers, including 2028 US presidential markets and global elections.

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Fed / Economy

FOMC meetings, rate-cut expectations, CPI, inflation, and macro event probabilities.

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AI / Tech

AI model rankings, big tech, private company events, SpaceX IPO expectations, and tech narratives.

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Crypto

BTC, ETH, and digital-asset threshold markets explained as probabilities rather than hype.

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Calculator

Convert YES prices into implied probabilities and rough payout examples.

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Guide

Learn the basics: YES price, market rules, liquidity, spreads, and responsible use.

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Learning hub

Prediction-market articles

What is a prediction market?A plain-English explanation of prediction markets, event contracts, uncertainty, and why prices can be read as crowd expectations.How to read Polymarket pricesLearn how to read YES and NO prices, outcome prices, spreads, liquidity, and market rules before clicking through to live markets.YES price and implied probabilityConvert YES prices to implied probabilities and understand why price does not equal certainty.Polymarket vs KalshiA neutral comparison framework for prediction-market platforms, market availability, regulation, fees, and user experience.Prediction markets vs sports bettingUnderstand the practical differences between event markets, sportsbook odds, probability thinking, and jurisdictional restrictions.Are prediction markets accurate?Prediction markets can aggregate information, but they can also be wrong, illiquid, biased, or distorted by news shocks.Polymarket availability by regionA cautious guide to regional availability, terms, and why users must check local laws before using any prediction market.