Elections research
Polymarket vs Polls
A neutral guide to comparing Polymarket-style event prices with public polls and survey averages.
Educational note: This article explains market structure and probability reading. It is not financial, legal or trading advice.
Different inputs
Polls ask people questions. Market prices aggregate trading interest, news, models and expectations about a specific event contract.
When they disagree
Check timing, turnout assumptions, sample quality, liquidity, contract wording and whether the market reflects nomination, election or another event.
Responsible reading
Do not use either signal in isolation. A robust view combines polls, forecasts, rules and market liquidity.
Reader checklist: compare the market wording, price, liquidity and resolution source before treating any probability as meaningful.
Use the calculatorBrowse all guides