Educational tracker
Candidate probability tracker
Candidate markets are useful only when you understand the question wording, resolution date, liquidity and whether the market is about winning, nomination, withdrawal or another event.
How to use this page
- Check whether the market asks about winning the presidency, securing a nomination, appearing on a ballot, or withdrawing.
- Compare prices across related markets instead of relying on one thin contract.
- Watch volume and spread: a 35% price in a thin market is less informative than a 35% price with deep liquidity.
- Treat polls, fundraising, endorsements and legal events as inputs, not guarantees.
Risk notes
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and can be affected by liquidity, spreads, rule interpretation and jurisdiction. This site is independent educational content, not financial, betting, legal or trading advice.